What if it was the proverbial calm before the storm? An analysis of Bitcoin from the fundamental side.
Bitcoin could die of starvation. Is Nassim Taleb's prophecy of a few days ago finally taking shape? It depends on your point of view. In reality we are experiencing a rather particular market phase, where neither bears nor bulls are the winners, but a general apathy that we would have liked to put behind us during the month of September.
Volumes never so low since 2020 - the year which was then the one in preparation for the most incredible bull run ever. Newspapers dry of news, with the exception of a proposal that is making Twitter, developers and enthusiasts discuss and a financial aspect that after the ETF boom seems to be just as bored.
In reality, however, there are several signals that we believe to be of great importance for those who want to invest in Bitcoin or have already done so. Because the calm we are experiencing today – which is boring for those who work in the crypto world – could soon be replaced by a return to the liveliness that has made many fall in love with this sector.
Can only Bitcoin Spot ETFs save us?
The idea that is circulating is that there is nothing to be interested in beyond the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Bitcoin investment vehicles that could raise up to 20 billion dollars one year after approval, an important sum in a general sense and more in the specific in a phase of almost zero volumes.
La situazione degli ETF
The situation of ETFs is more positive than it might seem to those who have not followed the evolutions of this specific BTC-related sector minute by minute.
SEC postponed the decision until October, which everyone expected. However, what not everyone expected was the evolution of the Grayscale case against SEC.
Within this case there is everything necessary to understand how the matter is moving on a legal level. The judges clearly told the SEC that the distinction between products based on futures and products based on the spot price no longer has any reason to exist and that therefore Grayscale's request must at least be reconsidered.
A situation that according to JP Morgan means forcing the SEC to accept, which would have as its only alternative the ex-post cancellation of what is already offered on the US markets.
There is much more to the ETF question
As all-encompassing as the ETF issue has become, there is more to talk about as we try to analyze Bitcoin for the coming weeks and months.
The most important case is that of the halving - which we have analyzed here in our Magazine - and which, if it were to repeat what we have seen in the past, could certainly give a bullish boost to Bitcoin.
The other data confirming that it could be a very similar situation is the absolute apathy of the markets in recent weeks, with volumes that have reached lows not seen since 2020, this is also an important signal as regards the possible $BTC rush triggered by miners halving.
The community discusses – and is therefore alive
The community is currently engaged in a rather heated discussion on BIP 300, which was proposed last August 18th. At the center are discussions on technical sidechains and drivechains, which we will address in a dedicated special.
What we wanted to point out is that this is actually a very good signal for Bitcoin. The community that gathers around it discusses ardently, quarrels, falls apart and reassembles itself. Sign of an ecosystem still alive, indeed, more alive than ever.
Legally, we have hit rock bottom
On a legal level - with the exception of the alleged DOJ complaint against Binance which, however, has not yet appeared - we should have already hit the bottom.
SEC should not attack other subjects, after hitting the two most relevant not only in the US, but throughout the known world. It is difficult to think, especially taking into account the important pressures that are also coming forward at a political level, that Gary Gensler will hit the $BTC world again, or at least the commercial world that revolves around him. .
There are reasons to believe that this could be the proverbial calm before a bullish push. At least for those who want to commit to a not so limited time horizon.
What if it was the proverbial calm before the storm? An analysis of Bitcoin from the fundamental side.
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